Market Update

Last Week In Review:

"THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH CHANGE, AS LONG AS IT IS IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION." ~ Winston Churchill. And there were some big changes indeed for Bonds and home loan rates last week - but not necessarily all in the "right direction". For most of the week, Bond prices were pummeled lower, causing home loan rates to rise - and even after a Friday afternoon rally, home loan rates worsened by about .25% for the week overall.

One silver lining...some of the abuse that Bonds took was at the hands of somewhat positive economic news. Remember that positive or strong economic news tends to benefit Stocks, which in turn can pull money out of Bonds - which causes Bond prices to worsen and home loan rates to rise. So when news hit of a far better than forecast Retail Sales Report and much better than expected earnings reports from giants like Google, the financial markets responded by flowing money over into Stocks, and right out of Bonds, causing home loan rates to rise.

Also hurting Bonds was inflation chatter during speeches made by several Federal Reserve Presidents, who vocalized their concerns over the persistence of inflation in the current economy. Additionally, the Producer Price Index showed wholesale inflation to be climbing higher, thanks to record high oil prices and a seventeen-year high on food prices. Because inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond, the scent of inflation in the air always causes Bond prices to decline, and as a result, home loan rates will rise.

Even though Bond prices ended the week lower than they began, it is still a good time to take advantage of historically lower home loan rates before rising inflation continues to push rates higher. If you, or a friend, family member, neighbor or coworker needs advice on the latest changes in the market, please feel free to get in touch.

ANOTHER KIND OF CHANGE IS COMING SOON, AS POSTAGE RATES WILL INCREASE ON MAY 12. BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT...THE POSTAL SERVICE IS ACTUALLY OFFERING SOME PRICE REDUCTIONS TOO! GET THE WHOLE STORY - AND LEARN HOW YOU MIGHT SAVE SOME CHANGE - IN THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

The Week Ahead:

After last week's barrage of economic news, the calendar will quiet down this coming week. However, we will get a good look at the housing market via the Existing Home Sales Report on Wednesday, and the New Home Sales Report on Thursday - as well as a read on Durable Goods Orders.

What are those "durable goods" anyways? Simply put, they are items that are durable, or made to last longer than three years, such as cars, furniture, electronics, appliances, business equipment, games, cameras, etc. This report shows a good measure of consumer and business consumption and buying behavior, and depending on the health of the report, could bring some activity to the volatile financial markets.

As you can see in the chart below, Bond prices ended the week with a move higher from a "floor of support" at the 200-day Moving Average...but are now headed back towards an overhead "ceiling of resistance" which could stop their progress higher. Remember that when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. If the news of the coming week isn't Bond-friendly enough to help them bash their way through the overhead ceiling, Bond prices and home loan rates may worsen once again.