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Snooze, and you WILL lose.

The Federal Reserve recently said that it plans to continue purchasing large quantities of Mortgage Backed Securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and "it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant".

The concern as always is that the media will spin these comments - telling consumers their own version of reality - something along the lines of this: "Good news, the Fed's words on continuing their purchasing program mean that rates will continue to drop lower, and remain low into the Summer"...thereby creating another round of folks hitting the "snooze bar" on moving forward with a refinance or purchase, which looks to be a very costly strategy for borrowers.

First, many of you have been hearing the objection from borrowers that they are waiting for 4.5%...but here's a reason we shouldn't look to the Fed to help make that happen with their purchasing program. Yes, the Fed has been buying Mortgage Bonds. But, those Fed purchases, are a lot of FNMA 30-yr, 5.5% and 5.0% coupons, which will not have much of a positive effect on present rates.

Note - there is a difference between the "coupon rate" and the interest rate the borrower actually pays. When we are talking coupon rate, this is the rate that the end investor purchasing these Bonds receives. For example, a net 5.50% to the investor - or their coupon rate - has to start off as a significantly higher rate to the borrower. Why? Because the originating firm, the wholesaler, the agencies like Fannie or Freddie, and the securitizing firm on Wall Street all take a little piece. A mortgage rate of 6.25% to the borrower nets down to around a 5.50% coupon.

Why is the Fed buying these Bonds? Well if you think about it, it's very smart of the Fed...and maybe even a little sneaky...because 5.5% Bonds actually represent outstanding mortgages with rates of 6 - 6.50%, which are precisely the loans being refinanced today.

So with rates at present levels, many of the mortgages in these FNMA 5.5% pools being bought up by the Fed will be refinanced and paid, thus giving the Fed a quick recoup on some of their investment. This is likely a big reason why the Fed said they could continue this purchasing program beyond June if necessary. Bottom line, the Fed's buying higher rate coupons will not necessarily get rates to 4.5%, but it should put a ceiling on how high rates can go during the near term.

Second, let's address plain old fashioned customer greed. Even though it may make sense for one of your clients to refinance right now, and save $250 per month for example, the greed factor kicks in as clients fall in love with the dream of a 4% handle on their refinance rate...so they wait, and risk the savings of $250 per month in the hopes of gaining another $30 of savings per month.

Clearly, rates could turn higher, and this window of opportunity could pass them by entirely. But here's the most important part: even if they are correct and are able to eventually grab that lower rate and save another $30 per month - think of what they have lost by waiting. While they delayed, they lost the savings they could have gained by taking action sooner - or in the example used, $250 - for every single month they waited. So even if they get the rate they are looking for, it could take years to make up what they lost by waiting.

Obama Unveils Homeowner Affordability

President Obama unveiled his plan to help stabilize the housing market and keep millions of borrowers in their homes.

The Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan includes two initiatives to help struggling homeowners. One is a refinancing program for homeowners with less than 20% equity in their homes, or who owe more than their home is worth. The second program attempts to lower monthly payments for homeowners at risk of losing their home. In addition, the plan includes a third initiative to support low mortgage rates by strengthening confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Many of the plan’s details are still being worked out and will not be announced until March 4, here is an overview of the plan’s main components.

Refinancing Initiative

Under current rules, those families who own less than 20% equity in their homes have a difficult time refinancing and taking advantage of the historically low interest rates. Therefore, the refinancing initiative in the new plan provides refinancing help for homeowners with less than 20% equity in their homes or who owe more than their home is worth. This initiative is open to homeowners who have conforming loans which are guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and who owe up to 5% more than their home is worth.

According to the plan, “credit-worthy” or “responsible” homeowners can refinance their mortgage into a 30- or 15-year, fixed-rate loan based on current market rates. The refinanced loan, however, cannot include prepayment penalties or balloon payments. For many families, this low-cost refinancing may help reduce their mortgage payments by up to thousands of dollars per year.

As with the rest of the plan, details about this initiative will be released at a future date—including what, if any, credit score requirements will be included.

Stability Initiative

This initiative aims at providing help to individual families as well as entire neighborhoods by helping reduce foreclosures and stabilize home prices. It is intended to help homeowners who are struggling to afford their mortgage payments, but cannot sell their homes because prices have fallen significantly.

The goal of this initiative is simple: “reduce the amount homeowners owe per month to sustainable levels.” To accomplish this, lenders are encouraged to lower homeowners' payments to 31 percent of their income by lowering their interest rate to as low as 2% or by extending the terms of the loan. In addition, lenders can also lower the principal owed by the borrower, with Treasury sharing in the costs.

Homeowners who are current on their mortgages but are struggling can still apply for this program. As such, this is one of the few programs designed to help homeowners who may face delinquency soon, but are current at the moment.

Since the focus of this initiative is on helping families and neighborhoods, investment properties do not qualify. This initiative also includes a number of additional elements and incentives that benefit homeowners and lenders alike, including:

• Incentives to Help Borrowers Stay Current: To provide an extra incentive for borrowers to keep paying on time, the initiative will provide a monthly balance reduction payment that goes straight towards reducing the principal balance of the mortgage loan. As long as a borrower stays current on his or her loan, he or she can get up to $1,000 each year for five years.
  
• Reaching Borrowers Early: To keep lenders focused on reaching borrowers who are trying their best to stay current on their mortgages, an incentive payment of $500 will be paid to servicers, and an incentive payment of $1,500 will be paid to mortgage holders, if they modify at-risk loans before the borrower falls behind.

 

Supporting Low Mortgage Rates
As part of the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, the Treasury Department is increasing its funding commitment to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure the strength and security of the mortgage market and to help maintain mortgage affordability. This portion of the plan will use using funds already authorized in 2008 by Congress for this purpose.

The increased funding will enable Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to carry out ambitious efforts to ensure mortgage affordability for responsible homeowners, and provide forward-looking confidence in the mortgage market.

Again, the government plans to unveil the final details of the plan on March 4, 2009. For now, you can download a sheet of common Questions and Answers produced by the government at: www.treas.gov/initiatives/eesa/homeowner-affordability-plan/ConsumerQA.pdf

I will continue monitoring the plan as new information becomes available. If you have any questions or would like to discuss how this may specifically impact you, I’d be happy to sit down with you. Just call or email me to set up an appointment.

REVISED: Homebuyer incentives of stimulus plan

Here is an update from a previous post regarding the stimulus plan as it relates to the housing industry.  For individual questions, please send an email to me.  First-time homebuyers who purchase homes from the start of the year until the end of November 2009 may be eligible for the lower of an $8,000 or 10% of the value of the home tax credit. Remember a tax credit is very different than a tax deduction – a tax credit is equivalent to money in your hand, as opposed to a tax deduction which only reduces your taxable income.

The tax credit starts phasing out for couples with incomes above $150,000 and single filers with incomes above $75,000. Buyers will have to repay the credit if they sell their homes within three years.

Tax Credit Versus Tax Deduction

It’s important to remember that the $8,000 tax credit is just that… a tax credit. The benefit of a tax credit is that it’s a dollar-for-dollar tax reduction, rather than a reduction in a tax liability that would only save you $1,000 to $1,500 when all was said and done. So, if a homebuyer were to owe $8,000 in income taxes and would qualify for the $8,000 tax credit, they would owe nothing.

Better still, the tax credit is refundable, which means the homebuyer can receive a check for the credit if he or she has little income tax liability. For example, if a homebuyer is liable for $4,000 in income tax, he can offset that $4,000 with half of the tax credit… and still receive a check for the remaining $4,000!

Phaseout Examples

According to the plan, the tax credit starts phasing out for couples with incomes above $150,000 and single filers with incomes above $75,000.

To break down what this phaseout means to homebuyers who are over those amounts, the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) offers the following examples:

Example 1: Assume that a married couple has a modified adjusted gross income of $160,000. The applicable phaseout to qualify for the tax credit is $150,000, and the couple is $10,000 over this amount. Dividing $10,000 by $20,000 yields 0.5. When you subtract 0.5 from 1.0, the result is 0.5. To determine the amount of the partial first-time homebuyer tax credit that is available to this couple, multiply $8,000 by 0.5. The result is $4,000.

Example 2: Assume that an individual homebuyer has a modified adjusted gross income of $88,000. The buyer’s income exceeds $75,000 by $13,000. Dividing $13,000 by $20,000 yields 0.65. When you subtract 0.65 from 1.0, the result is 0.35. Multiplying $8,000 by 0.35 shows that the buyer is eligible for a partial tax credit of $2,800.

For those tracking the math in the examples above, you may be wondering where the “$20,000” came from—that is, why you divide “$10,000 by $20,000” in the first example and “$13,000 by $20,000” in the second example. Here’s where the $20,000 comes into play:

The tax credit amount is reduced for buyers with a modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of more than $75,000 for single taxpayers and $150,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return. The tax credit amount is reduced to zero for taxpayers with MAGI of more than $95,000 (single) or $170,000 (married) and is reduced proportionally for taxpayers with MAGIs between these amounts.

In other words:

• $170,000 – $150,000 = the $20,000 in the first example
• $95,000 – $75,000 = the $20,000 in the second example

Remember, these are general examples. You should always consult your tax advisor for information relating to your specific circumstances.

Homes that Qualify

The tax credit is applicable to any home that will be used as a principal residence. Based on that guideline, qualifying homes include single-family detached homes, as well as attached homes such as townhouses and condominiums. In addition, manufactured or homes and houseboats used for principal residence also qualify.

Higher Loan Amounts

More good news – there is an extension on the additional tier of conforming loan amounts which had been first established in 2008.  This tier of home loans are those greater than $417,000, and with a maximum that depends on the area, but is not greater than $729,750.  These loans will again be eligible for rates that are slightly higher than conforming loan rates, but less expensive than the standard “jumbo” loan rates.

Additional Housing-Related Provisions

Tax Incentives to Spur Energy Savings and Green Jobs — This provision is designed to help promote energy-efficient investments in homes by extending and expanding tax credits through 2010 for purchases such as new furnaces, energy-efficient windows and doors, or insulation.

Landmark Energy Savings — This provision provides $5 Billion for energy efficient improvements for more than one million modest-income homes through weatherization. According to some estimates, this can help modest-income families save an average of $350 a year on heating and air conditioning bills.

Repairing Public Housing and Making Key Energy Efficiency Retrofits To HUD-Assisted Housing—This provision provides a total of $6.3 Billion for increasing energy efficiency in federally supported housing programs.Specifically, it establishes a new program to upgrade HUD-sponsored low-income housing (for elderly, disabled, and Section 8) to increase energy efficiency, including new insulation, windows, and frames.

Expanding Housing Assistance—This provision increases support for several critical housing programs. It includes $2 Billion for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to help communities purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed, vacant properties.

More Help for Homeowners in the Future
Another thing to keep an eye on in the coming weeks is President Obama’s plan to help struggling borrowers before they are faced with a default on their mortgage.

According to reports, the Obama administration is discussing plans to help borrowers who are struggling to stay afloat, but who have not yet fallen behind on their payments. At this point, details are scarce; however, reports indicate that President Obama is looking to spend approximately $50 Billion to directly help homeowners before they face foreclosure and financial disaster.

While this is good news for individual homeowners, it will likely be good for the housing industry as a whole. That’s because, assisting struggling borrowers before they default should help stop the wave of foreclosures, which are estimated to top two million this year. That, in turn, will help stabilize home prices.

The Economic Stimulus Plan is huge, and impacts a number of industries. I’ve highlighted some of the major provisions that may impact you now and in the future.

As always, if you have any questions or would like to discuss how this may specifically impact you, I’d be happy to sit down with you. Just call or email me to set up an appointment.

Home Preservation Policy

The Federal Reserve Board has issued its Homeownership Preservation Policy, which seeks to prevent foreclosures on certain residential mortgage assets held, owned, or controlled by a Federal Reserve Bank. Under the new policy, Federal Reserve Banks or their agents (collectively, Fed Banks) must proactively review their portfolio of residential mortgage loans that are in danger of foreclosure to determine whether loan modification is a viable option by assessing whether borrowers are:

At least 60 days delinquent on payments, or
In danger of becoming 60 days delinquent due to a decline in income, an interest rate reset, or other common trigger event.

Additionally, the modified loan must have an expected net present value greater than the net present value expected from the property's foreclosure. If a borrower meets these qualifications, the Fed Banks will offer that borrower a loan modification substantially similar to the type of modification offered through HUD's HOPE for Homeowner's program. If the borrower has both a senior mortgage and a subordinate mortgage on the same property, the Fed Banks will either seek to modify both mortgages or consolidate the loans into a single loan. For those borrowers who do not qualify for a modification under the policy, the Fed Banks may (i) offer the borrower a temporary repayment plan, or (ii) inform the borrower about additional federal assistance available. The new policy is effective immediately and has already been applied to assets in connection with JPMorgan Chase's acquisition of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc.

Home Preservation Policy - Click Here to downloand the complete policy.